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Political Risk
SNP Loses Majority, Could Lose Power If Greens/Alba Withhold Support
The governing pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) has lost its majority in the Scottish Parliament following the collapse of its coalition deal with the left-wing environmentalist Greens. The SNP previously governed in minority from 2007-11 and 2016-21. The collapse of the 'Bute House agreement' betweent the SNP and Greens appears to have come at the behest of First Minister Humza Yousaf. Relations between the two parties became increasingly strained following the scrappingof climate change targets in mid-April.
- The collapse of the agreement could pose risks to gov't stability. Historically, the SNP has relied on the support of the pro-independence Greens to pass legislation when in minority. However, the bad blood between the two sides could stop this.
- The pro-Union Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats are unlikely to offer any backing to Yousaf's gov't. This leaves just the single pro-independence Alba Party MSP Ash Regan, a former SNP minister who left the party over the Gender Recognition Reform bill in 2022.
- The BBC reports: "In a media huddle earlier, Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie was asked if the Greens will still be as co-operative with the Scottish government over things like the budget. He replied: “Do you think the current government will still be in place for the next budget?”.
- The next Scottish parl't election is not due until May 2026. However, should the Greens withhold support it could bring down the gov't much sooner. Current polling shows the centre-left pro-Union Labour party challenging the SNP for top spot for the first time since 2007.
Chart 1. Scottish Parliament, Seats
Source: parliament.scot, MNI. N.b. Black seat is non-aligned Presiding Officer
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.