Macroeconomy

  • 2020-07-08 16:56


    By Brooke Migdon

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - More than one-third of U.S. households anticipate a loss in employment income in the next four weeks, led by deteriorating sentiment in the South and West following an uptick in Covid-19 cases that is triggering new businesses shutdowns.

    Approximately 35% of households expect to lose sources of income in the latest Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey, reflecting data from 250 million households across the U.S. from June 25-30.

  • 2020-07-08 14:11


    By Greg Quinn

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Following are highlights of Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau's speech to Parliament to deliver a fiscal snapshot Wednesday:

    Through rapid and broad support, our government has been able to protect millions of jobs, provide emergency income support to families, and help keep businesses afloat during the worst of the storm.

    This support is helping Canadians get back on their feet, and has prevented long term damage. But this pandemic is not over and we cannot let up on our commitment to one other.

    Forecasts are always uncertain. So with this Snapshot, we are providing our best prediction of the economic situation in Canada to the end of the current fiscal year, to March 31st, 2021.

  • 2020-07-08 01:27


    --Japan June Econ Watchers Current Index 38.8; May 15.5
    --Japan Govt Ups View: Improvement of Sentiment to continue

    TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's current sentiment index rose for the second straight month in June, boosted by a pick-up in eating and drinking services, retail sales and general services, a key government survey released Wednesday showed.

    The survey indicates whether respondents with jobs most sensitive to economic conditions -- taxi and truck drivers, department-store sales staff and restaurant and shop owners -- think economic conditions have improved or worsened over the last three months.

    These are the key points from the latest Economy Watchers Survey, conducted by the Cabinet Office between June 25 and June 30.

    --The Economy Watchers sentiment index for

  • 2020-07-01 02:03


    --Japan June Consumer Confidence Index 28.0 Vs May 24.0
    --Japan Govt Ups View: Remains Severe But Sign of Recovering

    TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's consumer confidence index rose for a second straight month in June to a seasonally adjusted 28.4 from 24.0 in May, the latest Consumer Confidence Survey published by the Cabinet Office showed Wednesday.

    --Consumers were more optimistic on all four key sentiment sectors; overall economic well-being, labor market condition, income conditions, and the next six months would be good time to buy durable goods.

    --The Cabinet Office upgraded its assessment from the previous month, saying consumer confidence remains severe but showed signs of recovering.

    --The sub-index on asset prices, not included in calculating overall consumer confid

  • 2020-06-30 20:48


    --Firms 1-Yr Infln Rate Outlook at 0.3%; 0.5% in March
    --Firms 3-Yr Infln Outlook 0.7%; 0.8% in Mar, 5-Yr Infln Rate 0.9% v 1.0%

    TOKYO (MNI) - The inflation outlook among Japanese companies fell from three months ago, indicating an expectation consumer prices will remain muted, the Bank of Japan's June Tankan survey released Wednesday showed.

    The survey was conducted from May 28 to June 30.

    The key points from the inflation outlook section of the Tankan follow.

    --On average, companies saw the pace of increase in consumer prices for one-, three- and five-years ahead lower than three months ago.

    --Firms on average expect the annual consumer inflation rate at 0.3% a year from now, down from 0.5% in March, a 0.7% rise three years out and a 0.9% rise five years ah

  • 2020-06-30 20:43


    TOKYO (MNI) - Japanese business sentiment worsened from three months ago, as expected, as uncertainties and lower corporate profits triggered by the spread of the coronavirus weighed on the outlook, the Bank of Japan's June Tankan Business Survey shows.

    But many firms, especially the larger ones, expect sentiment to improve three months ahead as economic activities restart as restrictions ease, the survey published Wednesday shows.

    The Tankan also showed capital investment plans by major and smaller firms were revised down and now sit below the historical averages.

    The key points from the survey:

    --The diffusion index for sentiment among major manufacturers stood at -34 in June, down from -8 in March, the sixth straight drop, now at the lowest level since June

  • 2020-06-30 08:59


    By Greg Quinn

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Canada's GDP fell a record 11.6% in April and a flash estimate suggests output rose 3% in May, signaling a turnaround for the economy from Covid-19.

    The April decline was the largest in data going back to 1961 and covered all 20 major industries, Statistics Canada said Tuesday from Ottawa. Manufacturing dropped 22.5% as social distancing rules and border closures hindered production including a near total shutdown of automobile assembly. Petroleum and coal also dropped by a quarter amid a global supply glut.

    Retailing fell 22.9% with clothing stories down by two-thirds and car dealers down 41.8%. Online shopping boosted the "non-store retailers" category by 17.3%.

  • 2020-06-29 20:56


    --May Jobless Rate At 2.9% Vs. 2.6% in April
    --May's 2.9% Highest Since February 2017

    TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's seasonally adjusted average unemployment rate rose to 2.9% in May from 2.6% in April, equivalent to the highest level since February 2017, according to data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications released on Tuesday.

    The number of employed rose 40,000 (+0.1%) m/m in May vs.

  • 2020-06-29 07:01


    By Greg Quinn

    OTTAWA (MNI) - BOC Governor Tiff Macklem will likely get solid evidence of the economy's low point this week with a record decline in GDP for April and a narrower May trade deficit, setting the stage for his first policy decision July 15.

    GDP plunged 14% in April, according to an MNI economist survey. That report on Tuesday is followed the May trade deficit on Thursday, seen narrowing to CAD2.1 billion from CAD3.3 billion.

    Since taking over from Stephen Poloz June 3, Macklem has cited evidence the economy bottomed out early in 2Q and has a "deep hole" to climb out of, while pledging to restore only part of the forecasts the BOC dropped in April.

  • 2020-06-25 11:25


    By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - The lowest paid workers have been hit hardest by the pandemic-led recession that rapidly pushed the U.S. unemployment rate into the double-digits, according to a new paper co-authored by Federal Reserve economists.

    That could mean the Fed will keep interest rates near zero for even longer than markets now expect as policymakers seek to ensure an eventual recovery reaches the most vulnerable corners of society, a concern Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized.

    As of late May, employment for workers in the lowest 20% of the income distribution was still 30% lower relative to mid-February, said the paper, co-authored by four Fed staffers and presented at a Brookings Institution conference Thursday.