U.S. Data

  • 2020-07-08 16:56

    By Brooke Migdon

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - More than one-third of U.S. households anticipate a loss in employment income in the next four weeks, led by deteriorating sentiment in the South and West following an uptick in Covid-19 cases that is triggering new businesses shutdowns.

    Approximately 35% of households expect to lose sources of income in the latest Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey, reflecting data from 250 million households across the U.S. from June 25-30.

  • 2020-06-25 11:25

    By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - The lowest paid workers have been hit hardest by the pandemic-led recession that rapidly pushed the U.S. unemployment rate into the double-digits, according to a new paper co-authored by Federal Reserve economists.

    That could mean the Fed will keep interest rates near zero for even longer than markets now expect as policymakers seek to ensure an eventual recovery reaches the most vulnerable corners of society, a concern Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized.

    As of late May, employment for workers in the lowest 20% of the income distribution was still 30% lower relative to mid-February, said the paper, co-authored by four Fed staffers and presented at a Brookings Institution conference Thursday.

  • 2020-05-27 14:34

    By Brooke Migdon

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - Americans likely filed 2.1 million initial jobless claims last week, lifting the total through Covid-19 to 41 million and suggesting the unemployment rate will continue surging to fresh record highs.

    The Bloomberg forecast is close to the previous week's 2.4 million, a shift from earlier when economists saw a much faster drop-off in new applications. The expected increase due in figures Thursday would push initial claims tied to coronavirus shutdowns well past the 37 million filed during the global financial crisis.

    Substantial damage is expected to continue with analysts saying weekly claims will remain above 1 million through at least June.

  • 2020-05-26 17:18

    By Greg Quinn

    CHICAGO (MNI) - Three-quarters of firms say the U.S. economy needs at least a year to fully recover from Covid-19, a Chicago Fed survey published Tuesday shows.

    About half of the 670 respondents from the Chicago Fed district said the recovery will take between one and two years. The other half was split between the most extreme answers -- either a recovery in less than a year or one requiring more than two years.

    "Many of the small businesses we heard from -- especially those in the entertainment, tourism, recreation, restaurant, and retail sectors -- are in danger of financial distress," the report said.

  • 2020-05-20 13:58

    By Brooke Migdon

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. weekly jobless claims are expected to fall to 2.4 million Thursday, taking the total number of unemployment insurance applications since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic to nearly 40 million.

    The figure in the Bloomberg forecast would lag the previous week's nearly 3 million by roughly half a million, falling more quickly than last week's 195,000 decrease that was the weakest weekly decline since initial claims levels began slowing in April.

    Initial claims have declined by an average of 14% per week since peaking in late March and have likely fallen further on momentum from state reopenings this month, according to analysts.

  • 2020-05-11 11:00

    By Evan Ryser

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. consumer views of job security, earnings, income, and spending growth were the worst on record in the New York Federal Reserve's April consumer survey.

    The 20.9%, up from 18.5%, of respondents who said their job is at risk was a new record in survey data back to 2013, according to the report Monday.

    Respondents who said they would find a job in the next three months, if a current job was lost, plunged 6.1 percentage points to 40.7%, the largest month-to-month decline recorded since 2013.

    Median expectations for earnings growth, and income growth also showed declines. Unemployment expectations retreated slightly from last month's series high of 50.9% to 47.6%.

  • 2020-05-06 13:55

    By Brooke Migdon

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - Another 3 million U.S. weekly jobless claims are expected in figures due Thursday as the coronavirus continues to prompt business closures.

    The figure in the Bloomberg forecast would lag the record 6.6 million weekly claims by more than half, which some say is strong evidence that initial claims will continue to decline.

    The estimate would bring jobless claims tied to the coronavirus to a staggering 33 million, nearly quadrupling the total amount of jobs lost during the 2008 recession.

  • 2020-04-29 13:27

    By Brooke Migdon

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - Another 3.5 million U.S. weekly jobless claims are likely coming in figures due Thursday as businesses remain closed due to the coronavirus, though initial claims may begin to slow as states consider re-opening.

    The still-elevated figure in the Bloomberg forecast would be smaller than the previous two readings of 4.4 million and 5.2 million. It's strong evidence the first wave of people who overwhelmed state benefit websites as they were laid off is passing.

    This week's consensus increase would still push claims tied to coronavirus-related shutdowns near 30 million, about 10% of the total U.S. population.

  • 2020-04-29 10:23

    --US GDP -4.8% in Q1, Worse Expected to Come

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - US GDP sank by -4.8% in the first quarter, worse than the -4.0% median market expectation, as lockdowns designed to slow the coronavirus pandemic put a halt to economic activity in the final weeks of March.

    The Commerce Department data released Wednesday show the largest quarterly contraction since the fourth quarter of 2008, when GDP fell by -8.8% at the bottom of the global financial crisis. It also marks the first post-crisis GDP drop.

    The data indicate a recession is well underway in the world's largest economy, with second quarter readings expected to be much steeper.

  • 2020-04-28 14:40

    By Ryan Hauser

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. GDP in the first quarter of 2020 is expected to show the deepest contraction in over a decade amid COVID-19's impact to global supply chains, an oil shock and stay-at-home orders.

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release results for the first estimate of Q1 GDP on Wednesday morning, with markets expecting a 3.8% drop according to the Bloomberg median estimate. The downturn will likely mark the first negative reading since Q1 2014, when GDP fell 1.1%.

    The report is only a harbinger of worse readings to come, with the Congressional Budget Office predicting a second-quarter drop close to -40% at annualized rates.