Canada

  • 2019-04-04 13:50


    By Yali N'Diaye

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - Monthly employment is expected to be flat in March after stronger-than-expected gains of 55,900 in February and 66,800 in January, according to a MNI survey, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5.8%. The Bloomberg consensus is at +10,000, with the unemployment rate also stable. The unemployment rate has been below 6% since September 2018.

    Ahead of the release on Friday, we outline important themes for particular attention.

    - Private jobs increased 31,800 in February, explaining much of the total 55,900 employment gain.

  • 2019-04-04 10:47


    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index rebounded to 54.3 in March from 50.6 in February, with the gain suggesting stronger activity and softer prices increases, data released Thursday by the Richard Ivey School of Business showed.

    While the 3.7-point increase did not offset the cumulative decrease of 9.1 points over the previous two months, it was the largest advance since last October.

    Here are some key features of the report:

    - The rebound in the unadjusted index was even stronger than the headline figure, as the PMI climbed 8.7 points to to 57.6, returning above the 50.0 mark for the first time since last November despite a 2.5-point drop in the price index to 60.1.

    - The price index decreased 1.1 points to 58.7, suggest

  • 2019-04-01 19:16


    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from a press conference by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz on Monday, following a speech to the Baffin Regional Chamber of Commerce and the Nunavut Mining Symposium in Iqaluit, Nunavut:

    - As far as the BOC is concerned, "We're not forecasting a recession," Poloz said. The decline in long-term yields is reflecting the expectation that the risk of future inflation is declining and that economic growth is slowing, which is already factored into forecasts. He said both the BOC and markets are data dependent. Poloz also said it is more the case that a yield curve inversion tends to be closely related to times preceding recessions in the U.S. than it is the case for Canada.

  • 2019-04-01 14:57


    By Courtney Tower

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Following are the key points from a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz on Monday, reaffirming the BOC's position that the present low-growth period will prove to be temporary.

  • 2019-03-29 08:30


    - GDP Excluding Energy +0.4%, Largest Gain Since November 2017

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the January data on the Canadian GDP by industry released Friday by Statistics Canada:

    - January GDP rebounded 0.3%, the largest gain since May 2018, fully offsetting declines of 0.1% in both December and November.

    - The rebound topped market expectations of a 0.1% increase despite the expected contraction in oil production due to mandatory cuts in Alberta that were implemented to counter lower oil prices. In fact, if not for a 0.6% drop in energy, GDP would have increased 0.4%, the largest expansion since November 2017.

    - Details of the report were strong, as gains were widespread across 18 of 20 industrial sectors.

  • 2019-03-28 11:45


    By Yali N'Diaye

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - Monthly GDP by industry is expected to hold steady in January following two months of contractions in November and December.

    A flat reading would add downside risk to the Bank of Canada's estimate of a 0.8% annualized GDP growth in the first quarter, after a 0.4% growth in the fourth quarter - not even half of the BOC's 1.3% estimate.

    --ENERGY A DRAG

    Mandated oil production cuts in Alberta in effect since January should weigh on the goods-producing sector.

  • 2019-03-27 08:40


    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the January data on the Canadian merchandise trade released Wednesday by Statistics Canada:

    - The goods trade deficit narrowed to C$4.2 billion, while analysts in a MNI survey had expected a deficit of C$3.5 billion, similar to the market consensus. The disappointing reading was reinforced by a revision to the December deficit estimate to C$4.8 billion from C$4.6 billion.

    - The smaller deficit was largely due to higher energy exports. Total exports rebounded 2.9% to C$47.6 billion, marking the first increase since July 2018. Much of the gain was price related, as real exports rose just 0.9%.

    - Crude oil prices soared 36.0%, driving crude oil exports up 36.5%.

  • 2019-03-26 15:30


    By Yali N'Diaye

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - After reaching a record C$4.6 billion in December, the merchandise trade gap is expected to narrow to C$3.5 billion in January according to MNI survey of analysts.

    The goods balance has been in deficit for all of 2018, except for the month of July.

    --OIL PRICE REBOUND

    The 3.8% drop in exports in December was led by energy, as energy products sales abroad plunged 21.7%. The rebound in oil prices should unwind at least part of the December decline.

    --REFINERY IMPORTS SEEN DOWN

    Refined petroleum energy boosted imports in December due to maintenance and turnaround work as some Canadian refineries that increased demand for foreign petroleum products.

  • 2019-03-22 14:18


    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Pressure, both external and domestic, has intensified on the Bank of Canada to leave its policy rate unchanged through the end of this year, following the example of other central banks, specifically the Federal Reserve.

    On the domestic front, inflation remains well below the 2.0% target even as Statistics Canada reported Friday that total CPI ticked up to 1.5% year-over-year in February from 1.4% in January. Lower gasoline prices (-11.9% year-over-year) remained the top downward contributor, and CPI excluding gasoline rose 2.1% in February, the same pace as in January.

    However, the BOC's preferred measures of underlying inflation continued to show little sign of upward pressure.

  • 2019-03-22 08:51


    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the February data on the Canadian CPI released Friday by Statistics Canada:

    - Headline unadjusted CPI rose 0.7% on the month, more than the 0.6% gain expected by analysts in a MNI survey, with all the eight major components recording an increase. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI was up 0.3% on the month, and 0.2% excluding food and energy.

    - The monthly boost came in large part from gasoline prices, which were up 1.9%, their first monthly increase since July 2018. CPI excluding gasoline rose 0.6% on the month, the largest gain in a year.