Canada

  • 2019-03-28 11:45


    By Yali N'Diaye

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - Monthly GDP by industry is expected to hold steady in January following two months of contractions in November and December.

    A flat reading would add downside risk to the Bank of Canada's estimate of a 0.8% annualized GDP growth in the first quarter, after a 0.4% growth in the fourth quarter - not even half of the BOC's 1.3% estimate.

    --ENERGY A DRAG

    Mandated oil production cuts in Alberta in effect since January should weigh on the goods-producing sector.

  • 2019-03-27 08:40


    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the January data on the Canadian merchandise trade released Wednesday by Statistics Canada:

    - The goods trade deficit narrowed to C$4.2 billion, while analysts in a MNI survey had expected a deficit of C$3.5 billion, similar to the market consensus. The disappointing reading was reinforced by a revision to the December deficit estimate to C$4.8 billion from C$4.6 billion.

    - The smaller deficit was largely due to higher energy exports. Total exports rebounded 2.9% to C$47.6 billion, marking the first increase since July 2018. Much of the gain was price related, as real exports rose just 0.9%.

    - Crude oil prices soared 36.0%, driving crude oil exports up 36.5%.

  • 2019-03-26 15:30


    By Yali N'Diaye

    WASHINGTON (MNI) - After reaching a record C$4.6 billion in December, the merchandise trade gap is expected to narrow to C$3.5 billion in January according to MNI survey of analysts.

    The goods balance has been in deficit for all of 2018, except for the month of July.

    --OIL PRICE REBOUND

    The 3.8% drop in exports in December was led by energy, as energy products sales abroad plunged 21.7%. The rebound in oil prices should unwind at least part of the December decline.

    --REFINERY IMPORTS SEEN DOWN

    Refined petroleum energy boosted imports in December due to maintenance and turnaround work as some Canadian refineries that increased demand for foreign petroleum products.

  • 2019-03-22 14:18


    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Pressure, both external and domestic, has intensified on the Bank of Canada to leave its policy rate unchanged through the end of this year, following the example of other central banks, specifically the Federal Reserve.

    On the domestic front, inflation remains well below the 2.0% target even as Statistics Canada reported Friday that total CPI ticked up to 1.5% year-over-year in February from 1.4% in January. Lower gasoline prices (-11.9% year-over-year) remained the top downward contributor, and CPI excluding gasoline rose 2.1% in February, the same pace as in January.

    However, the BOC's preferred measures of underlying inflation continued to show little sign of upward pressure.

  • 2019-03-22 08:51


    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the February data on the Canadian CPI released Friday by Statistics Canada:

    - Headline unadjusted CPI rose 0.7% on the month, more than the 0.6% gain expected by analysts in a MNI survey, with all the eight major components recording an increase. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI was up 0.3% on the month, and 0.2% excluding food and energy.

    - The monthly boost came in large part from gasoline prices, which were up 1.9%, their first monthly increase since July 2018. CPI excluding gasoline rose 0.6% on the month, the largest gain in a year.

  • 2019-03-22 08:35


    By Courtney Tower

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the January data on retail sales released Friday by Statistics Canada:

    - Canadian retail sales decreased 0.3% to C$50.1 billion in January, largely on a 1.5% drop in sales of motor vehicles and parts and essentially due to price changes rather than volume changes. Analysts in a MNI survey and in a BBG consensus had expected a 0.4% gain. The estimate for December was revised down to -0.3% from -0.1%.

    - Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts were up 0.1%. And total sales by volume were unchanged.

    - The decrease in total sales for the third straight month had not been seen since the three-month decline in April-June 2012.

  • 2019-03-21 08:30


    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the January data on the Canadian wholesale sales released Thursday by Statistics Canada:

    - Total wholesale sales rose 0.6% in January to C$63.5 billion, the largest gain since October 2018. The monthly advance lifted the 12-month growth rate to 1.8% from 1.7%. December was unrevised at +0.3%.

    - Details of the report were generally robust, with widespread gains across sectors and regions. Sales increased in five of 7 subsectors, representing 70% of total wholesale trade. Regionally, sales were up in 7 provinces, representing 90% of wholesale trade.

  • 2019-03-19 16:17


    - No Plans To Issue Ultra-Long Bonds

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau tabled a C$19.8 billion budget deficit for fiscal year 2019-2020 in the House of Commons Tuesday, creating a federal debt-to-GDP ratio of 30.7% that is forecast to diminish through 2024.

    Still, the budget won't be balanced throughout the projection horizon: the deficit would still be C$9.8 billion for fiscal year 2023-2024, when the federal debt would represent 28.6% of GDP.

    Finance Minister Bill Morneau, during a press conference, declined to suggest any timeline to bring back the budget to balance, arguing that it is more important to invest in Canada's middle class.

    To finance its budget deficit and other requirements, the government will issue a gross amou

  • 2019-03-19 16:11


    By Courtney Tower

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Higher than expected revenues notably reduced the federal government's deficit for the fiscal year just ending, but its projections show that the deficit rises again for the coming fiscal year.

    Finance Minister Bill Morneau brought down a 2019-2020 budget in Parliament Tuesday that projects real GDP growth of 1.9% for calendar year 2018, 1.8% for 2019 and 1.6% and 1.7% for the two subsequent years.

    The GDP projections are much in line with recent Bank of Canada estimates, as are the CPI inflation estimates of 1.9% for 2019 and 2.0% for 2020.

    The projected deficit for FY2018-2019 is now C$14.9 billion, down from the C$18.1 billion gap expected last fall.

  • 2019-03-18 08:30


    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the January data on Canada's international transactions in securities, released Monday by Statistics Canada:

    - Foreign investors bought C$28.4 billion in Canadian securities in January, the largest investment since May 2017, following a C$20.5 billion divestment in December. Investment in Canadian securities fell to C$67.1 billion in 2018 from C$189.2 billion in 2017.

    - In January, foreign investment focused on Canadian debt securities (C$19.4 billion), led by a C$14.3 billion investment in bonds. Investors favored Canadian government bonds, increasing their portfolio exposure by C$15.2 billion, led by a record C$12.9 billion investment in federal government bonds.