• 2019-03-01 10:23

    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Canada real GDP rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter on an annualized basis, a sharp slowdown from 2.0%, and the smallest expansion since the second quarter 2016, data from Statistics Canada showed Friday.

    The data added downside risk to the Bank of Canada's outlook, which was based on a 1.3% annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter. For 2018 as a whole, GDP growth slowed to 1.8% from 3.0% in 2017, while the BOC had expected 2.0%.

    On a quarterly basis Canada GDP edged up 0.1%, following a 0.5% expansion in the third quarter.

    Energy explained a good part of the weakness, but it was not just an energy story, as household consumption continued to weaken, along with housing investment.

  • 2019-02-28 15:40

    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Statistics Canada will release the December GDP by industry and fourth quarter GDP reports Friday. Ahead of the releases, we highlight five themes for particular attention:

    - Analysts in a MNI survey expect GDP to be flat in December, handing a weak start to the first quarter, with forecasts ranging from -0.1% to +0.1%. GDP contracted 0.3% in November as manufacturing, construction and energy weighed on the output of goods-producing industries. Services were flat.

    - A 1.2% drop in real manufacturing sales on lower petroleum and coal products is expected to dampen the performance of goods-producing industries in December.

    - In services, a 2.5% decline in existing home sales is also expected to weigh.

  • 2019-02-28 09:47

    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Data released Thursday by Statistics Canada showed energy took its toll on goods exports in the fourth quarter, while further adding downward pressure on industrial prices in January.

    Canadian industrial product prices declined 0.3% in January, marking the third consecutive monthly decrease, Statistics Canada reported Thursday, bringing down the 12-month growth rate to 1.0% from 2.0% the previous month.

    Meanwhile, raw materials prices increased 3.8% on the month, the same as in December. However, the index fell 5.5% from January 2018, following a 5.8% decrease in December, due to crude energy products (-8.6%).

  • 2019-02-27 09:51

    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the January data on the Canadian Consumer Price Index released Wednesday by Statistics Canada:

    - Headline unadjusted CPI edged up 0.1% in January, while analysts in a MNI survey had expected it to remain unchanged, following a 0.1% decrease in December.

    - Of the eight major categories, three posted declines on the month, including transportation (-1.0%), which was the lone major component to also post a decrease on the year (-0.4%), affected by gas prices. Gasoline prices fell 3.1% from December, and were the second largest downward contributor to monthly inflation after air transportation (-16.0%). Overall energy was down 1.1% on the month and CPI excluding energy was up 0.2%.

  • 2019-02-26 15:35

    --12-Mo Inflation Expected to Slow to 1.4%

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Statistics Canada will release the January Consumer Price Index report Wednesday. Ahead of the release, we highlight five themes for particular attention:

    - Analysts in a MNI survey expect headline CPI to be flat on the month, with forecasts ranging from -0.1% to +0.2%. Headline CPI edged down 0.1% in December after falling 0.4% in October.

    - Airfare, for which Statistics Canada changed the methodology in March 2018, is expected to remain a source of volatility. After a 28.1% jump in December, analysts expect a pullback in January. The statistical agency is also expected to change its methodology for the rent component of the index, which is part of the shelter category.

  • 2019-02-22 09:37

    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the December data on Canadian retail sales released Friday by Statistics Canada:

    - Retail sales contracted a further 0.1% in December, which was still better than the 0.5% decrease expected by analysts in a MNI survey. Lower oil prices explained a large part of the decrease, while higher car sales brought a partial offset.

    - Overall, the weakness was widespread across sectors, as sales declined in 7 of 11 of the major categories, although they represent less than half of retail trade (43%). Weaker sales at gasoline stations were largely to blame, owing to lower gas prices at the pump.

  • 2019-02-21 13:57

    By Courtney Tower

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Following are the key points from a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz on Thursday, to the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal, saying that the Bank's stated goal of future policy rate hikes is on a highly uncertain path:

    - The BOC has judged that the target for the overnight rate must rise from its present 1.75% to a neutral range, seen as between 2.5% and 3.5%.

  • 2019-02-21 09:54

    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Canadian wholesale sales unexpectedly rebounded 0.3% to C$63.1 billion in December, boosted by autos and parts, data released Thursday by Statistics Canada showed.

    The 12-month growth rate picked up to 1.7% in December from 1.1% in November.

    Despite the positive headline, which also showed real sales rose 0.3% on the month, details of the report were on the weak side, and did not bode well for wholesale trade contribution to fourth quarter GDP growth.

    The sales estimate for November was revised down to -1.1% from -1.0%.

    For the fourth quarter of 2018, overall sales contracted 0.4%, the largest drop since the first quarter of 2016, following a 0.6% increase the previous quarter.

  • 2019-02-15 11:07

    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Canada's existing home sales unexpectedly rebounded in January, rising 3.6% after three months of declines, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported Friday.

    However, the rebound might not reflect a turnaround just yet, as details of the report suggest.

    On a 12-month unadjusted basis, existing home sales were still down 4.0%, the weakest month of January since 2015. Sales plunged 39.3% in Greater Vancouver, and edged down 0.2% in Greater Toronto.

    Furthermore, despite the monthly sales recovery, year-over-year price growth further slowed in December, with the MLS Home Price Index up 0.8%, the smallest increase since June 2018.

  • 2019-02-15 09:37

    By Yali N'Diaye

    OTTAWA (MNI) - Foreign investors rebalanced their portfolio holdings of Canadian securities in December to cut exposure to bonds while further adding to Canadian equities, Statistics Canada reported Friday.

    Overall, foreign investors reduced their holdings of Canadian securities by C$19.0 billion in December, the largest divestment since October 2007.

    For 2018 as a whole, their investment in Canadian securities rose C$69.6 billion, not even half the C$189.2 billion investment recorded in 2017.

    Meanwhile, Canadian investors reduced their portfolios' exposure to foreign securities by C$0.4 billion, bringing down the investment to C$58.1 billion in 2018 from C$84.7 billion in 2017.