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MNI: BOC's Macklem Says Inflation Is Moving In Right Direction

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Canada's central bank chief did not signal whether the data would justify lowering borrowing costs in June.

LATEST INSIGHT

MNI INTERVIEW: Coordination Needed On Non-Banks-Irish Deputy

Central Bank of Ireland deputy governor says non-banks reforms should be tailored and targeted because of the diversity of the sector.

MNI Credit Weekly: Volatility Is Back

Volatility has returned to the credit market with risk tone shifting on geopolitical concerns.

Political Risk

Trump Has Slight Edge Over Biden With RFK Confirmed On Ballot

A new Fox News poll has found former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over President Biden in the critical swing state Michigan, when surveyed in a five-way matchup with Robert F Kennedy Jr and other third-party candidates.

  • RFK's campaign confirmed yesterday that he had gained ballot access in Michigan. Later in the day, more than a dozen members of the Kennedy family delivered a personal rebuke to RFK by endorsing President Biden’s re-election bid.
  • Axios notes: “Kennedy had already officially qualified to appear on the presidential ballot in Utah and has collected enough signatures to appear on the ballots in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, Iowa and Nebraska, according to his campaign.”
  • Fox notes that, "Trump’s [Michigan] advantage is mainly due to a 19-point lead among men. He is also the favorite among White men without a college degree (by 33 points), rural voters (+23), voters under age 35 (+16), and White voters (+13)."
  • Fox adds that, "Biden’s best groups include Black voters (+56), urban voters (+27), suburban women (+21), and voters ages 65 and over (+14)... Voters living in union households go for Biden by 12 points, while the much larger non-union segment backs Trump by 7."
  • Polymarket gives Biden a 56% implied probability of winning Michigan, likely pricing in Biden recapturing much of his progressive alliance as the election draws closer.

Figure 1: “If the presidential election were today, how would you vote if the candidates were:,” Michigan

Source: Fox News

Blinken's China Trip Comes Amid New Tensions Over Russia And Tariffs

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will depart April 23 on a four-day trip to China. Blinken's trip comes on the back of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's trip, which she described as "productive" but was underpinned by US concerns that Chinese industrial overcapacity could impact US and global markets.

  • Overcapacity is likely to figure during Blinken's trip, particularly as President Biden announced he could triple tariffs on certain Chinese metals, based on the results of an ongoing USTR review.
  • The G7 said in a statement today: "...we are concerned that China’s non-market policies and practices are leading to harmful overcapacity... A growing China that plays by international rules would be of global interest. We are not decoupling or turning inwards."
  • Blinken's will also raise concerns over China-Russia collaboration, China transaction in sanctioned Iranian crude oil, and attempt to dial down tensions in the Indo-Pacific - particularly regarding Chinese naval incursions into Philippine territorial waters, and Chinese concerns over security threats posed by AUKUS.
  • Blinken said at a press conference in Italy today: "We’ve made very clear to China that they should not be supplying Russia with weapons... We’ve not seen the direct supply of weapons, [but we have seen] the critical supply of inputs, of components for Russia’s defense industrial base..."
  • Blinken added: "China can’t have it both ways. It can’t purport to want to have positive, friendly relations with countries in Europe and at the same time be fueling the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War."

MNI Interview With Deputy Governor from the Central Bank of Ireland

  • MNI speaks to Central Bank of Ireland Deputy Governor Vasileios Madouros -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

Dallas Fed Economist On Oil Market Outlook

MNI interviews a Dallas Fed economist on the oil market outlook -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

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