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Political Risk
Catalan Election Outcome Could Disrupt Wider Spanish Political Stability
Ahead of the 12 May Catalan election, the outcome remains too close to call. Catalonia has an outsized influence on Spanish politics, with PM Pedro Sanchez reliant on the support of pro-independence parties at the national level to prop up his minority gov't. As such, this election could have a significant impact on the stability of Spanish politics nationwide.
- The centre-left pro-union Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) lead polls, with the hardline pro-indpendence Junts per Catalunya (Junts) in second. The leftist moderate pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), which has previously worked with both parties, could end up kingmaker. Polls show a high proportion of voters (~40% in some surveys) as undecided, making an unexpected outcome possible.
- Averages of opinion polls in May so far shows the pro-union parties - PSC, conservative Popular Party (PP), right-wing Vox, and leftist Comuns Sumar - on 68.6 seats. Meanwhile, the pro-independece parties - Junts, ERC, far-left Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) and nationalist Catalan Alliance (AC) - average 68.1 seats. With 68 required for a majority, the election is too close to call in this respect.
- The PSC is running on a campaign supporting an amnesty for those involved in the illegal 2017 independence referendum, and advocating 'moderation rather than separatism'. Junts leader, the currently-exiled Carles Puigdemont, argues that if he becomes regional president he will be in a strong position to extract concessions from Madrid due to Sanchez's reliance on seven Junts deputies to prop up his minority gov't.
Chart 1. Catalonia Opinion Polling, Seat Projections and 5-Poll Moving Average
Source: feedback, GESPO, Sigma Dos, Sociometrica, GAD3, Electopanel, Key Data, Cluster17, YouGov, GAPS, NC Report, DYM, IMOP, 40dB, Target Point, Celeste-Tel, Hamalgama Metrica, MNI
Zelenskyy Warns More Russian Troops Could Engage In Kharkiv Assault
Wires carrying comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy amid a sizeable Russian assault on the Kharkiv oblast in northeast Ukraine (see 'UKRAINE: Significant Escalation In Russian Attacks Along Kharkiv Frontier', 1201BST). Zelenskyy claims that 'Ukrainian forces were prepared to repel Russian ground attacks [in the direction of Kharkiv]', but warns that 'Russia could send more troops [to] the area'.
- Al Jazeera reported on 9 May "Ukrainian deputy military intelligence chief Vadym Skibitsky said Russia was possibly preparing to make a renewed attempt to capture Sumy and Kharkiv..."
- The likelihood of Russia being able to take the city of Kharkiv, currently deep within Ukrainian-held territory would require a collosal Russian offensive, diverting troops and equipment from other frontline areas on both sides.
- Instead, pushing south from the border around Vovchansk could see a 'buffer zone' set up along Ukraine's border with Russia's Belgorod oblast as President Vladimir Putin seeks to avoid incursions into the Russian Federation by Ukrainian forces.
- Earlier, Reuters reported that according to an unnamed high-ranking Ukrainian military source, Kyiv expects to receive its first delivery of F-16 fighter jets from the West in June or July.
- However, more important in the short-term will be how swiftly the now-Congressionally approved supplies of US weaponry can reach the frontlines to repel Russian advances. The speed of supply will go a long way to determining the ability of Ukrainian forces to hold the frontline over what is likely to be a sustained period or Russian offensives over the spring and summer months.
Map of Frontlines in Northeast Ukraine
Source: Al Jazeera, Institute for the Study of War
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.